The outlook for inbound tourism to Germany after the travel restrictions

We do not expect things to carry on as they have been, nor will there be an automatic return to the market conditions of 2019. Everything has simply changed too much for that. In many respects, travel in the times of coronavirus is uncharted territory for the travel industry, for consumers and for tourism marketing.

To ensure that our marketing is efficient and successful, the GNTB has commissioned two international market studies to analyse the outlook for inbound tourism to Germany after the travel restrictions resulting from the pandemic have been lifted. I would like to share with you the key insights from these studies.

Tourism Economics examined the pandemic’s influence on the 15 most important source markets for Destination Germany, looked at market segments and explored various scenarios for the recovery phase.

The market researchers expect a 45 per cent drop in overnight stays by visitors from Europe and a 64 per cent drop from overseas in the current year, while the 2019 figures for overnight stays might be reached again by the end of 2023.

The western European markets are likely to see the quickest recovery. According to the findings, the five countries likely to recover the quickest are Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Austria, followed by France, Sweden, the UK, Spain and Italy at a more moderate pace. Eastern European countries such as Russia, the Czech Republic and Poland, and the overseas markets, will get back on track more slowly.

Business travel will be the hardest hit by the crisis, with Tourism Economics predicting that business-related arrivals will not reach 2019 levels even in 2023. The recovery phase of inbound tourism to Germany is more likely to be driven by recreational travel.

Selected charts from Tourism Economics’ research(PDF, 1.42 MB) are available in the annex to this blog post.

A second study by IPK International, conducted as part of the World Travel Monitor, examines the impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour in international tourism. The survey conducted in May is based on interviews with international travellers in 18 source markets.

It found that there is still a relatively strong reluctance to travel abroad, but 50 per cent of respondents across all markets would at least consider foreign travel once borders reopen, even if there is no vaccine available.

In a comparison of the continents, the willingness to travel is strongest among Europeans at 61 per cent.

The risk of contracting coronavirus is considered lowest when travelling by car, when travelling alone and on holidays in the heart of nature. Cultural travel, city breaks and sightseeing tours are considered medium-risk, whereas visits to the theatre, the cinema and larger events are considered to be high-risk.

In this context, I think the following assessment of Germany in an international comparison is particularly noteworthy: when asked which destinations appear safe or unsafe from a coronavirus perspective, Germany received the best rating, ahead of our near neighbours Denmark, Switzerland and Austria.

Selected charts from IPK International’s research(PDF, 0.99 MB) are also available in the annex to this blog post.

When I combine the results of this research, the market insights from our foreign representative offices and our experience from previous crises, the strategy for leading Germany’s inbound tourism industry back to success begins to take even clearer shape.

The challenges are as follows. Destination Germany’s exposed market segments, such as cultural and city breaks or the MICE segment, have been particularly hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The competition between nations will become fiercer due to the smaller market volume, while capacity in tourism infrastructure, for example in airlines and the hotel industry, will remain limited for the foreseeable future.

Consumers will look more closely at quality, sustainability and value for money as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

And this is where there are opportunities. Germany enjoys an excellent international reputation, as demonstrated by the top marks given to our health management by the Deep Knowledge Group. Only Switzerland and Israel can compete with us in this respect. With regard to the current risk of infection, we achieve the best result in an international comparison, according to IPK.

Service providers all along the tourism value chain have successfully adapted their products to the additional requirements that will be in place for as long as the coronavirus is with us. Hygiene and distancing rules have been implemented, and visitor flows have been managed.

Walking and cycling holidays, for example, allow visitors to spend time in the great outdoors and are the perfect way to enjoy a memorable holiday in Germany despite the coronavirus-related rules.

I firmly believe that we have created an excellent basis for success in the tourism marketplace of the future thanks to our long-term strategy of anchoring sustainability in the core of the Destination Germany brand, and by placing themes such as natural landscapes, traditions and customs, active holidays and rural regions at the heart of our marketing.

We have also created a new campaign, Germany – Dreams Become Reality, in order to boost this demand.

Over the coming weeks, we will be launching further campaigns adapted to our customers’ revised values with the aim of positioning Destination Germany appropriately with the relevant target groups.

In 2021, our German.Spa.Tradition theme will coincide with the 200th anniversary of the birth of Sebastian Kneipp, with a focus on the extensive offerings of Germany’s more than 350 certified health and spa resorts. A second campaign, German.Urban.Culture, will focus on the cultural treasures and ambience that Germany’s smaller cities and towns have to offer.

But I will tell you more about this in my next post.

I would like to take the opportunity at this point to thank all of our partners in Germany’s inbound tourism industry for their hard work, which has enabled us to get our recovery programme off the ground.

I have faith that we can bring Germany’s incoming tourism back on track through courage, strength, clever ideas and a lot of perseverance – even if big challenges await us.

Yours,

Petra Hedorfer